Which markets should AEP 2027 territory plans target first?
Heading into AEP 2027 (October 15 to December 7, 2026), the starting map is the 981K members displaced by the 2026 exits across 8 tracked opportunity states, led by FL with 312K. 62% of them actively shopped rather than accepting the crosswalk default, and those who did accept it are still absorbing a 18.4% average premium increase: proven shopping behavior plus a standing grievance, in the states where the 2027 exit wave is likeliest to land. This page re-ranks when the 2027 non-renewal notices post; the full calendar of dated 2027 events is on the disruption pipeline.
Ranked AEP opportunity states: orphaned members
Opportunity score blends orphaned volume with capture dynamics (which carriers are winning the displaced members). The CSV below carries this table row for row, ready for CRM import.
Territory-priority table (CRM-ready)
| Rank | State | Orphaned (K) | Top capturer | Opportunity score | Territory note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FL | 312 | Centene | 94 | Largest single market opportunity; UHC and Centene exits — Humana capturing |
| 2 | TX | 189 | Centene | 91 | DFW and Houston corridors; Humana and regionals winning displaced members |
| 3 | Ohio | 142 | UHC | 87 | Columbus and Cleveland suburban markets |
| 4 | Illinois | 98 | BCBS | 82 | Chicago suburban HMO market; HCSC absorbing |
| 5 | Missouri | 84 | Elevance | 78 | STL and KC corridor; Elevance Medicaid bridge |
| 6 | Washington | 76 | UHC | 76 | Centene exiting; Humana and regionals absorbing |
| 7 | Colorado | 48 | Kaiser | 71 | Denver metro; Kaiser strongest but geography-limited |
| 8 | Nebraska | 32 | BCBS | 63 | BCBS Nebraska taking both UHC and BCBS rationalized exits |
Who is capturing the displaced members
Knowing where the members are is half the plan; the migration table shows who your reps are up against for them.
| From | To | % of exits | Members (K) | Why (analyst note) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UHC | Humana | 38% | 353 | $0-premium plan matching; Humana the most aggressive capturer in exited counties |
| UHC | BCBS | 18% | 167 | Regional BCBS brand trust; PPO network preference |
| UHC | Regional | 16% | 149 | UPMC, Devoted, Alignment, SCAN winning county-level share |
| UHC | Aetna | 12% | 112 | CVS pharmacy channel routing in retained markets |
| UHC | Other/OM | 16% | 149 | Members reverting to Original Medicare or PDP-only |
| Centene | Humana | 41% | 213 | $0-premium D-SNP capture; formal CMS crosswalk assignment in several states |
| Aetna | BCBS | 52% | 104 | Highmark/IBX absorbing Aetna exits in PA/NJ |
The strategy view of this same event lives on 2026 plan exits. This page reframes it for territory planning; the underlying data and vintages are identical.
So what / Now what
For AEP 2027 this table is the evidence base, not the finished plan. The 2026-exit states prove where displaced members shop, who captures them, and how hard the crosswalk premium shock bites; the members who took that shock without choosing it are the softest switch targets of the coming window, and their next ANOC reopens the conversation. The definitive 2027 ranking arrives in early October 2026, when the new non-renewal notices post, days before the window opens. Plans that pre-stage territories on this evidence can re-rank in days; plans that start in October cannot.
- Sales ops: load the CSV as the provisional AEP 2027 territory list now; re-rank within days of the October 2026 non-renewal and crosswalk files posting, when this page versions to the 2027 wave.
- Script the premium shock for AEP 2027: crosswalked members absorbed the increase shown above without an active choice, which makes them the softest switch targets at AEP and again at OEP 2027.
- Staff against the top capturer named in each row: last cycle's winner is this cycle's incumbent to displace.
- Work the full calendar, not just exits: every dated 2027 event (negotiated drug prices, the October star release, GLP-1 coverage) moves members in these same states; see the 2027 disruption pipeline.
Provenance — 2026 plan exits and member migration
- Source file
- CMS 2026 non-renewal notices; carrier investor disclosures
- Vintage
- Plan year 2026 (announced fall 2025)
- Last updated
- January 20, 2026
- Refresh cadence
- Annual (non-renewals announced each fall)
- Method
- Terminated plan counts and affected membership from CMS crosswalk files; migration shares from January enrollment reconciliation.
- Known limitations
- Migration percentages are early-year estimates; 'active shopping' share is directional.