Which plans exited for 2026 — and where did the members go?
Data through Plan year 2026 (announced fall 2025) · Updated January 20, 2026
static extract
148 MA plans were terminated for 2026, affecting 2.1M members — UnitedHealthcare alone announced 109 plan exits. Members who accepted the default crosswalk saw premiums rise 18.4% on average; 62% shopped instead.
148
Plans terminated for 2026
Plan year 2026 (announced fall 2025)
2.1M
Members affected
Plan year 2026 (announced fall 2025)
+18.4%
Avg crosswalk premium increase
Jan 2026 reconciliation
62%
Actively shopped vs auto-crosswalk
Jan 2026 reconciliation
Plan exits by carrier
Where exited members went
| From | To | % of exits | Members (K) | Why (analyst note) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UHC | Humana | 38% | 353 | $0-premium plan matching; Humana the most aggressive capturer in exited counties |
| UHC | BCBS | 18% | 167 | Regional BCBS brand trust; PPO network preference |
| UHC | Regional | 16% | 149 | UPMC, Devoted, Alignment, SCAN winning county-level share |
| UHC | Aetna | 12% | 112 | CVS pharmacy channel routing in retained markets |
| UHC | Other/OM | 16% | 149 | Members reverting to Original Medicare or PDP-only |
| Centene | Humana | 41% | 213 | $0-premium D-SNP capture; formal CMS crosswalk assignment in several states |
| Aetna | BCBS | 52% | 104 | Highmark/IBX absorbing Aetna exits in PA/NJ |
Opportunity states — contestable orphaned membership
| State | Orphaned (K) | Top capturer | Opportunity score | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL | 312 | Centene | 94 | Largest single market opportunity; UHC and Centene exits — Humana capturing |
| TX | 189 | Centene | 91 | DFW and Houston corridors; Humana and regionals winning displaced members |
| Ohio | 142 | UHC | 87 | Columbus and Cleveland suburban markets |
| Illinois | 98 | BCBS | 82 | Chicago suburban HMO market; HCSC absorbing |
| Missouri | 84 | Elevance | 78 | STL and KC corridor; Elevance Medicaid bridge |
| Washington | 76 | UHC | 76 | Centene exiting; Humana and regionals absorbing |
| Colorado | 48 | Kaiser | 71 | Denver metro; Kaiser strongest but geography-limited |
| Nebraska | 32 | BCBS | 63 | BCBS Nebraska taking both UHC and BCBS rationalized exits |
So what / Now what
2.1M displaced members is the largest forced-switching event in recent MA history, and 62% of them actively shopped rather than accepting the crosswalk — orphaned membership is winnable. The capture pattern (Humana 38%, regional BCBS 18%) shows brand plus $0-premium matching wins these members.
- Growth teams: the opportunity-state table ranks where orphaned members remain contestable — FL (312K) and TX (189K) lead.
- Retention teams: crosswalked members absorbing an 18.4% premium increase are prime switch targets at next AEP; flag them in churn models.
- Watch fall 2026 non-renewal notices for the 2027 wave; this page will version with each cycle.
Provenance — 2026 plan exits and member migration
- Source file
- CMS 2026 non-renewal notices; carrier investor disclosures
- Vintage
- Plan year 2026 (announced fall 2025)
- Last updated
- January 20, 2026
- Refresh cadence
- Annual (non-renewals announced each fall)
- Method
- Terminated plan counts and affected membership from CMS crosswalk files; migration shares from January enrollment reconciliation.
- Known limitations
- Migration percentages are early-year estimates; 'active shopping' share is directional.