What can a rep cite when selling against each carrier?
Data through Multiple vintages (shown per fact) · Updated July 17, 2026
curated
5 carrier battlecards, each carrying the CMS-sourced facts a rep can cite in a competitive conversation, with the vintage on every fact. Star movement comes from official October ratings, exits from CMS non-renewal notices, momentum from contract enrollment extracts; benefit-value erosion is modeled and labeled as such.
-0.4★
Steepest star decline (Humana) since 2023
2026 Star Ratings (published Oct 2025)
148
Plans terminated for 2026 across all carriers
Plan year 2026 (announced fall 2025)
-23.9%
Deepest modeled benefit erosion (UHC); modeled, not CMS data
Plan years 2022–2026
Selling against UHC
| Fact a rep can cite | Source | Vintage |
|---|---|---|
| Weighted star rating moved 4★ → 3.8★ (-0.2) across the 2023 to 2026 rating years, below the 4.0★ quality bonus threshold. | CMS Star Ratings (official October releases) | 2026 Star Ratings (published Oct 2025) |
| Terminated 62 plans for 2026, affecting 930K members across 13 states (FL, TX, OH, IL, MO, NE, more). Analyst note: margin recovery — exited unprofitable plans, trimmed benefits, and reduced networks. | CMS 2026 non-renewal notices | Plan year 2026 (announced fall 2025) |
| Tracked enrollment trend averages +1% YoY across 6 tracked states; weakest in TX at -6.2%, strongest in FL at +6.8%. | CMS contract enrollment extract | March 2026 |
| Modeled benefit value down 23.9% vs the 2022 baseline (deep 2026 benefit cuts as part of margin-recovery plan). Modeled MedicareInsights estimate: directional context only, never citable as CMS data. | Modeled PMPM benefit-value series modeled | Plan years 2022–2026 |
Selling against Humana
| Fact a rep can cite | Source | Vintage |
|---|---|---|
| Weighted star rating moved 3.8★ → 3.4★ (-0.4) across the 2023 to 2026 rating years, below the 4.0★ quality bonus threshold. | CMS Star Ratings (official October releases) | 2026 Star Ratings (published Oct 2025) |
| Tracked enrollment trend averages -3.6% YoY across 25 tracked states; weakest in FL at -11.4%, strongest in KY at +1.2%. | CMS contract enrollment extract | March 2026 |
| Modeled benefit value down 14.7% vs the 2022 baseline (2023–2025 trims under mlr pressure). Modeled MedicareInsights estimate: directional context only, never citable as CMS data. | Modeled PMPM benefit-value series modeled | Plan years 2022–2026 |
Selling against Aetna
| Fact a rep can cite | Source | Vintage |
|---|---|---|
| Terminated 14 plans for 2026, affecting 200K members across 3 states (PA, NY, NJ). Analyst note: northeast ppo product consolidation into hmo-only. | CMS 2026 non-renewal notices | Plan year 2026 (announced fall 2025) |
| Tracked enrollment trend averages +2.8% YoY across 3 tracked states; weakest in PA at 2.1%, strongest in FL at +3.4%. | CMS contract enrollment extract | March 2026 |
| Modeled benefit value down 6.8% vs the 2022 baseline (tier 2 drug coverage narrowed in 6 markets). Modeled MedicareInsights estimate: directional context only, never citable as CMS data. | Modeled PMPM benefit-value series modeled | Plan years 2022–2026 |
Selling against BCBS
| Fact a rep can cite | Source | Vintage |
|---|---|---|
| Terminated 11 plans for 2026, affecting 142K members across 3 states (IA, NE, KS). Analyst note: mid-market affiliate consolidation — plan id rationalization. | CMS 2026 non-renewal notices | Plan year 2026 (announced fall 2025) |
| Tracked enrollment trend averages +2.8% YoY across 3 tracked states; weakest in IL at 2.4%, strongest in TX at +3.2%. | CMS contract enrollment extract | March 2026 |
| Modeled benefit value down 4.3% vs the 2022 baseline (minor otc adjustments in select markets). Modeled MedicareInsights estimate: directional context only, never citable as CMS data. | Modeled PMPM benefit-value series modeled | Plan years 2022–2026 |
Selling against Centene
| Fact a rep can cite | Source | Vintage |
|---|---|---|
| Weighted star rating moved 3.4★ → 3.1★ (-0.3) across the 2023 to 2026 rating years, below the 4.0★ quality bonus threshold. | CMS Star Ratings (official October releases) | 2026 Star Ratings (published Oct 2025) |
| Terminated 34 plans for 2026, affecting 520K members across 6 states (WA, OR, ID, MT, FL, TX). Analyst note: broad ma retreat — enrollment fell below 1m; refocusing on d-snp counties. | CMS 2026 non-renewal notices | Plan year 2026 (announced fall 2025) |
| Tracked enrollment trend averages +14.5% YoY across 3 tracked states; weakest in PA at 12.4%, strongest in TX at +16.8%. | CMS contract enrollment extract | March 2026 |
| Modeled benefit value down 5.6% vs the 2022 baseline (minimal — started with lean benefits; little to cut). Modeled MedicareInsights estimate: directional context only, never citable as CMS data. | Modeled PMPM benefit-value series modeled | Plan years 2022–2026 |
Provenance of the underlying datasets
Every fact above traces to one of these registry entries; the panel at the foot of the page covers the battlecard assembly itself.
Provenance — Star rating trajectory by carrier
- Source file
- CMS MA Star Ratings (annual, published each October); CMS prior-auth reporting
- Vintage
- 2026 Star Ratings (published Oct 2025)
- Last updated
- February 10, 2026
- Refresh cadence
- Annual (October)
- Method
- Enrollment-weighted average star rating for each carrier's contracts, one point per rating year from the official October release.
- Known limitations
- Only annual October ratings are shown; CMS does not publish quarterly ratings.
Provenance — 2026 plan exits and member migration
- Source file
- CMS 2026 non-renewal notices; carrier investor disclosures
- Vintage
- Plan year 2026 (announced fall 2025)
- Last updated
- January 20, 2026
- Refresh cadence
- Annual (non-renewals announced each fall)
- Method
- Terminated plan counts and affected membership from CMS crosswalk files; migration shares from January enrollment reconciliation.
- Known limitations
- Migration percentages are early-year estimates; 'active shopping' share is directional.
Provenance — Carrier footprint by state
- Source file
- CMS monthly enrollment by contract (OEC), March 2026; CMS landscape files
- Vintage
- March 2026
- Last updated
- May 1, 2026
- Refresh cadence
- Monthly (pipeline pending; currently a curated extract)
- Method
- Enrollment in thousands by carrier and state; plan counts, star rating of largest plan, premium/MOOP of flagship product.
- Known limitations
- Curated for major carriers in key states; trend %s are YoY and carrier notes are analyst commentary, not CMS data.
Provenance — Net benefit value (PMPM) vs 2022 baseline
- Source file
- Modeled from CMS bid/landscape data — MedicareInsights estimate
- Vintage
- Plan years 2022–2026
- Last updated
- April 15, 2026
- Refresh cadence
- Annual
- Method
- PMPM supplemental-benefit value modeled from landscape benefit files against a 2022 baseline. Directional estimate, not an actuarial figure.
- Known limitations
- Modeled — do not cite as CMS data. Use for prioritization, not filings.
So what / Now what
The strongest competitive selling is a dated fact, not an adjective. A rep who can say which ratings fell, which plans were terminated, and where a rival is retrenching, with the CMS vintage attached, wins credibility that brochure claims cannot. Note the boundary: the benefit-value erosion series is a MedicareInsights model and is labeled as such on every card; cite it as directional context, never as CMS data.
- Enablement: lift the facts verbatim into talk tracks, keeping the vintage with each fact; a dated CMS figure survives a compliance review, an undated claim does not.
- Pair each card with the AEP target-markets page: a carrier's exit states are exactly where its former members are listening.
- Mark October 2026: the 2027 star ratings (with KED at triple weight) and the 2027 non-renewal notices land days before AEP 2027 opens, and these cards refresh the week each file is ingested. The dated calendar is on the 2027 disruption pipeline page.
- Contract-level disenrollment rates and the new public prior-auth data (from Jan 2027) join these cards when those CMS files are ingested, adding churn and denial-behavior signals per competitor for AEP 2028.
Provenance — Carrier vulnerability battlecards
- Source file
- Assembled from CMS Star Ratings, CMS non-renewal notices, CMS contract enrollment extracts, and a modeled benefit-value series
- Vintage
- Multiple vintages (shown per fact)
- Last updated
- July 17, 2026
- Refresh cadence
- Updates as each underlying dataset refreshes
- Method
- Each card lists the facts a rep can cite when selling against a carrier: star trajectory (CMS Star Ratings), 2026 plan exits (CMS non-renewal notices), enrollment momentum (CMS contract enrollment extract), and benefit-value erosion (modeled, labeled as such). Every fact carries the vintage of the dataset it comes from; underlying provenance panels are on the page.
- Known limitations
- The selection and phrasing of facts is editorial. The benefit-value series is a MedicareInsights model, labeled modeled, and is never citable as CMS data.